Saturday, June 1, 2013

Recruiting System

Below is my list for how I anticipate my own personal ranking of a recruit. The list goes from 1 to 10, with 10 being the highest. The basic approximation for recruits should look somewhat like a bell curve. So please, don't get frustrated when I say a kid is a 5, that doesn't mean he's failing, he isn't getting a 50%, he's just an average recruit. This ranking is based on how a recruit will play out their eligibility at a BCS-level school.

Ranking Definition
10 Best in class/best at his position in ~4 years
9 First Team All-American
8 First Team All-Conference in Media and Coaches (Second or HM AA)
7 Second Team All-Conference Media Or Coaches
6 Honorable Mention All-Conference/Above Average Conference Starter
5 Average Conference Starter
4 Below Average Conference Starter/ Early of Bench
3 Depth Player
2 Non-BCS Depth Player
1 Walk On

If you're looking to figure out how this compares to the standard star system, I would expect something like this:

5 star: 8.5-10
4 star: 6.5-8.5
3 star: 4.5-6.5
2 star: 3-4.5
UR:    1-3

10s, as you may expect, will be exceptionally rare. Actually predicting a recruit to be a 10 would be difficult to do, though having a ceiling of a 10 isn't as difficult. Honestly, the only player in the last decade that I could foresee actually garnering a 10 prediction would be Adrian Peterson, and even his floor would have been around a 7.

It's not a perfect breakdown, because I doubt many teams will be recruiting kids that I expect to be a 2, let's say, compared to recruits I expect to be a 9. But it at least breaks it down in a way that I feel gives a bit more separation and a little better appreciation for how good a recruit really is.

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